45 years of Marin County Real Estate 1966 to 2010

Has the worm turned?  Take a look at the chart below which shows 45 years of Marin County Real Estate sales vs price appreciation:

A lot of real estate professionals think that the market is on the way up but really I don’t see it…not just yet. There’s a huge shandow inventory sitting dormant with bankers holding homes at bay while homeowners work through alternatives to foreclosure alternatives. Property values are still down and the distressed market (short sales and bank owned properties) continue to drive real estate values down down and frankly I don’t see much of a change. Are home appreciating? Its a topic of conversation but one that does not warrant more of a raised eye brow. Buyers and Sellers are still worried about their jobs, interest rates and all of the short sales that are on the market and the short sales that are coming onto the market. Its the norm. How can we talk about appreciation when most are trying to figure out how to hold onto their homes.  Even the luxury market is getting hit.  

Just today I ran a search for pre-foreclosure homes in Marin County that were over $1M and I found 43 listings! The luxury end is starting to feel the pinch and as Case-Schiller pointed out, the option arms are coming due for those 5 and 7 year loans. We will see more high end homeowners making decisions. Dump a bad asset and do a strategic short sale or find a way to refi and stay in the home while in an upside down market. Some are holding and renting until the market turns for the better. Don’t believe me when I say it’s hitting the luxury market? Take a look at the map below for $1m+ distressed homes in Marin County.