Foreclosures fall, but there’s a ‘rising tide’ ahead…
The number of homes entering foreclosure dropped in February, but a new up-turn may soon be on its way.
The reason? The $26 billion settlement between 5 major banks and state attorneys general over past foreclosure practices.
(Source: CNN Money)
Overdue Mortgages Number 6,082,000
New data from Lender Processing Services (LPS) shows that as of the end of January, there were 6,082,000 mortgages in the U.S. going unpaid. That tally includes loans that are 30 or more days delinquent and loans in foreclosure.
For more information click here.
Marin County Market Research Report (April 18, 2011)
Thinking about moving to Belvedere California but not sure what the market is doing? How about Tiburon, San Rafael or Mill Valley? If you click on one of the links below you’ll find good information about supply and demand, home prices, if we’re in a buyer’s market or a seller’s market. Remember real estate is local and the more you know about the Marin County real estate market the better off you’ll be in today’s market.
Find out what your agent knows!
- Belvedere, CA Real Estate Market Report
- Corte Madera, CA Real Estate Market Report
- Fairfax, CA Real Estate Market Report
- Greenbrae, CA Real Estate Market Report
- Kentfield, CA Real Estate Market Report
- Larkspur, CA Real Estate Market Report
- Mill Valley, CA Real Estate Market Report
- Novato, CA Real Estate Market Report
- Ross, CA Real Estate Market Report
- San Anselmo, CA Real Estate Market Report
- San Rafael, CA Real Estate Market Report
- Sausalito, CA Real Estate Market Report
- Tiburon, CA Real Estate Market Report
*If you are interested in other towns in Marin County that are not on the list above OR if you need info about a specific zip code in Marin County simply email me and let me know and I’ll forward you the report.
Marin County Market Research Report (March 28, 2011)
Are you a buyer or seller? Ever ask the question “How’s the market?” Are you looking for real-time local Marin County real estate market data? In today’s market, you need a real estate professional with market knowledge but sometimes that hard to come by so find out what your agent won’t or can’t tell you:
- Belvedere, CA Real Estate Market Report
- Corte Madera, CA Real Estate Market Report
- Fairfax, CA Real Estate Market Report
- Greenbrae, CA Real Estate Market Report
- Kentfield, CA Real Estate Market Report
- Larkspur, CA Real Estate Market Report
- Mill Valley, CA Real Estate Market Report
- Novato, CA Real Estate Market Report
- Ross, CA Real Estate Market Report
- San Anselmo, CA Real Estate Market Report
- San Rafael, CA Real Estate Market Report
- Sausalito, CA Real Estate Market Report
- Tiburon, CA Real Estate Market Report
*If you are interested in other towns in Marin County that are not on the list above OR if you need info about a specific zip code in Marin County simply email me and let me know and I’ll forward you the report.
45 years of Marin County Real Estate 1966 to 2010
Has the worm turned? Take a look at the chart below which shows 45 years of Marin County Real Estate sales vs price appreciation:
A lot of real estate professionals think that the market is on the way up but really I don’t see it…not just yet. There’s a huge shandow inventory sitting dormant with bankers holding homes at bay while homeowners work through alternatives to foreclosure alternatives. Property values are still down and the distressed market (short sales and bank owned properties) continue to drive real estate values down down and frankly I don’t see much of a change. Are home appreciating? Its a topic of conversation but one that does not warrant more of a raised eye brow. Buyers and Sellers are still worried about their jobs, interest rates and all of the short sales that are on the market and the short sales that are coming onto the market. Its the norm. How can we talk about appreciation when most are trying to figure out how to hold onto their homes. Even the luxury market is getting hit.
Just today I ran a search for pre-foreclosure homes in Marin County that were over $1M and I found 43 listings! The luxury end is starting to feel the pinch and as Case-Schiller pointed out, the option arms are coming due for those 5 and 7 year loans. We will see more high end homeowners making decisions. Dump a bad asset and do a strategic short sale or find a way to refi and stay in the home while in an upside down market. Some are holding and renting until the market turns for the better. Don’t believe me when I say it’s hitting the luxury market? Take a look at the map below for $1m+ distressed homes in Marin County.
Marin County Real Estate Activity Report
The California Association of Realtors Pending home sales rose in February, as did the share of distressed properties sold.
Pending home sales are forward-looking indicators of future home sales activity, providing information on the future direction of the market.
CAR’s stats are as follows:
56% of property sales were distressed sales (short sales, bank owned etc)
44% were regular sales (or in Marin speak “organic” sales)
* 43% of Marin’s market was distressed sales as compared to 2010 when the distressed sales were at 40%.
So what does that mean for Marin County since real estate is cyclical and seasonal? Also, since each real estate market has its submarkets how do you know if you are in a buyer’s market or seller’s market? Well that’s easy…take a look at the graph below. Read more
Marin County Market Update…Recapping 2010.
Recapping 2010, the first two charts show the number of residential single family homes that were sold each month compared to 2009. We started out with a bang with 43% more sales in January. This trend continued until July when we had fewer monthly sales than July 2009. And that’s how things continued until December when we sold a few more properties than the same month of the previous year.
Overall, from a closed transaction viewpoint, in 2010, we sold 7.8% more residential single family homes than we did in 2009!
The supply/demand chart shows a steep drop in homes for sale from September through December (dropping 44%) while pending sales held up pretty well (dropping only 30%). This created a comparatively active market for those sellers who stayed on the market through the holiday period.
This trend has resulted in a dramatic reduction of inventory. As you can see from the Months Supply of Unsold Inventory chart, we have tumbled from 7 months in September to only 4.1 months of inventory as of December.
So, we start out 2011 with relatively good demand and low inventory—good news for sellers. But remember that a lot of homes come on the market in February and March which will likely shift the negotiating advantage back to buyers.
For a detailed look at market conditions Town-by-town and Price Range-by-Price range, I’m including below my monthly pending charts. The bars represent the percentage of available listings that went into contract during the month of December.
Gme a call or send me an email if you’d like to discuss any of this information, or just to get an idea of where your home fits into this complex and ever-changing market.
Market Statistics – Marin County 4th Quarter 2009 vs. 4th Quarter 2010
Market Statistics – Marin County
Fourth Quarter 2009 vs. Fourth Quarter 2010
Marin County |
Q4 2009 | Q4 2010 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Sales* | 514 | 407 | -21% |
| Average Price ($000)* | $1,003 | $1,028 | 2% |
| Average DOM* | 125 | 109 | -13% |
| Months of Inventory* | 2.7 | 4.1 | 52% |
Belvedere |
Q4 2009 | Q4 2010 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Sales | 8 | 11 | 38% |
| Average Price ($000) | $3,258 | $3,499 | 7% |
| Average DOM | 178 | 193 | 8% |
| Months of Inventory | 6.7 | 5.2 | -22% |
Corte Madera |
Q4 2009 | Q4 2010 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Sales | 14 | 23 | 64% |
| Average Price ($000) | $928 | $997 | 7% |
| Average DOM | 97 | 113 | 16% |
| Months of Inventory | 4.5 | 1.6 | -64% |
Fairfax |
Q4 2009 | Q4 2010 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Sales | 22 | 16 | -27% |
| Average Price ($000) | $642 | $687 | 7% |
| Average DOM | 161 | 124 | -23% |
| Months of Inventory | 1.3 | 6.3 | 385% |
Greenbrae |
Q4 2009 | Q4 2010 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Sales | 13 | 9 | -31% |
| Average Price ($000) | $1,119 | $1,024 | -8% |
| Average DOM | 167 | 74 | -56% |
| Months of Inventory | 0.8 | 1.7 | 113% |
Kentfield |
Q4 2009 | Q4 2010 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Sales | 13 | 8 | -38% |
| Average Price ($000) | $2,196 | $1,751 | -20% |
| Average DOM | 158 | 19 | -88% |
| Months of Inventory | 2.2 | 4.0 | 82% |
Larkspur |
Q4 2009 | Q4 2010 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Sales | 10 | 12 | 20% |
| Average Price ($000) | $1,193 | $1,024 | -14% |
| Average DOM | 48 | 180 | 275% |
| Months of Inventory | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0% |
Mill Valley |
Q4 2009 | Q4 2010 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Sales | 71 | 60 | -15% |
| Average Price ($000) | $1,175 | $1,177 | 0% |
| Average DOM | 131 | 122 | -7% |
| Months of Inventory | 2.4 | 3.8 | 58% |
Novato |
Q4 2009 | Q4 2010 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Sales | 133 | 81 | -39% |
| Average Price ($000) | $641 | $606 | -5% |
| Average DOM | 114 | 93 | -18% |
| Months of Inventory | 1.9 | 2.9 | 53% |
Ross |
Q4 2009 | Q4 2010 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Sales | 11 | 5 | -55% |
| Average Price ($000) | $1,975 | $2,186 | 11% |
| Average DOM | 113 | 274 | 142% |
| Months of Inventory | 2.4 | 5.0 | 108% |
San Anselmo |
Q4 2009 | Q4 2010 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Sales | 38 | 31 | -18% |
| Average Price ($000) | $871 | $871 | 0% |
| Average DOM | 84 | 115 | 37% |
| Months of Inventory | 1.8 | 3.3 | 83% |
San Rafael |
Q4 2009 | Q4 2010 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Sales | 125 | 88 | -30% |
| Average Price ($000) | $829 | $652 | -21% |
| Average DOM | 91 | 83 | -9% |
| Months of Inventory | 2.6 | 4.8 | 85% |
Sausalito |
Q4 2009 | Q4 2010 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Sales | 14 | 15 | 7% |
| Average Price ($000) | $1,355 | $1,901 | 40% |
| Average DOM | 109 | 146 | 34% |
| Months of Inventory | 4.1 | 3.8 | -7% |
Stinson Beach |
Q4 2009 | Q4 2010 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Sales | 5 | 1 | -80% |
| Average Price ($000) | $1,275 | $775 | -39% |
| Average DOM | 113 | 162 | 43% |
| Months of Inventory | 5.7 | 20.0 | 251% |
Tiburon |
Q4 2009 | Q4 2010 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Sales | 18 | 25 | 39% |
| Average Price ($000) | $2,372 | $1,951 | -18% |
| Average DOM | 226 | 134 | -41% |
| Months of Inventory | 5.0 | 5.9 | 18% |
** Average DOM and Months of Inventory based on statistics for the last month of the stated quarter.
Half of Families Can Afford Most Homes on the Market
According to data from Movoto, a real estate site based in California, more than half of American families can afford to buy a new home based on income levels and listing prices. But while the site’s user search statistics show high interest in affordable price ranges, the company says buyers find it difficult to purchase short sales and foreclosures and banks are still reluctant to lend.
Henry Shao, CEO of Movoto, said “The lending market is not meeting homebuyers’ needs for loans to purchase reasonably priced homes, and banks are still making it difficult to purchase distressed properties.” » Read More
After Years of Record Declines, Home Prices Begin To Stabilize
The ups and downs seen in home price data over the past few years indicate a slow recovery in home prices with many false starts, especially in markets riddled with foreclosed properties, according to Fiserv, Inc. But the company’s analysts say that while the ebb and flow is not over, they expect 75 percent of U.S. metro areas to see stable prices by the end of 2011. However, even though price stabilization may be around the corner for most markets, Fiserv is forecasting average single-family home prices to fall another 5.5 percent between now and the end of September, with steep declines expected to continue in markets that have been hurt most by the housing crisis.» Read More
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